The Global Labor Demand

Labor Demand

The global demand for labor remains influenced by several trending key factors that differ greatly from country to country.

In the UK, economic uncertainty tied to high interest rates and geopolitical tensions have resulted in ongoing job vacancy decline over the last two years. Whereas the labor demand in the US and Canada is more dependent on industry sector with some companies continuing to thrive and others faced with recessionary-type challenges.

Conversely, the post-pandemic economic recovery has driven high labor demand in countries like Mexico, Poland and India that are able to offer qualified talent at a cost-effective price and benefit from global outsourcing.

United States

Demand for labor in the US surged over the last few years – the total number of employees increasing from an average of 163.5 million in 2019 to 167.6 million in 2024. Job openings have also risen significantly, with 8.1 million current job openings as of June 2024. In addition, 3.1 million jobs were added in 2023, and 1.3 million have been added in the first half of 2024. This is in contrast to 2019, when the market added 2.1 million jobs.

Currently, there are 6.8 million unemployed workers in the US, and even if they were all employed, there would still be a shortage of 1.3 million workers. This heightened demand for labor reflects a robust labor market that has surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Companies that don’t typically compete over workers are now fishing from the same pool of talent as some industry sectors are able to offer better wages and benefits than others.

Key sectors in the US economy that have experienced notable hiring growth since 2019:

Health services +21%: Ongoing need for healthcare service like ambulatory healthcare, hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities.
Private education +21%: Increased demand for early childhood education, special education and higher education.
Transportation and warehousing +6%: Rising demand for logistics and delivery services during the pandemic.
Manufacturing +6%: American manufacturing has seen considerable growth from new industrial policy and onshoring efforts.

Contrary to these industries, some sectors have seen decreased hires since 2019:

Mining and logging –23%: Aging workforce, fluctuating market, stricter environmental regulation and rising operating costs.
Retail trade –13%: Economic uncertainty, supply chain issues and shift to e-commerce.
Leisure and hospitality –12%: Many venues continue to struggle in the post-COVID economy.

The makeup of the labor force is changing as the US economy continues to shift. In this post-pandemic economy, the US is likely to return to a market where some sectors do well while others continue to struggle – which is a stark contrast to the post-2008 economy where industries grew and declined together. Moving forward, there will be more variance between the winning and losing sectors.

Canada

Like the US, Canada has seen more demand for labor since 2019, with 1.25 million more employed workers in 2024. Job adds have also continued to grow, with 320,000 additions in 2019; 400,000 in 2023; and 75,000 in Q1 of 2024.

Employment gains in 2023 have been focused on three sectors, totaling 68% of all employment growth:

Healthcare +31%
Professional/scientific/technical +19%
Transportation and warehousing +18%

Other sectors have lost employment with finance, insurance, real estate, agriculture and construction all losing jobs over the course of 2023. Unlike the US, the Canadian sectors are not competing for labor, as there is significant slack in the labor market.

United Kingdom

The UK has been experiencing a decline in job vacancies, with demand falling for 21 consecutive months from June 2022 to February 2024. Despite this significant drop in vacancies, there hasn’t been a spike in unemployment. The IT sector is one of the few areas where pressures have eased, with vacancies decreasing by 105% from their peak in 2022, and now below pre-pandemic levels. As GDP continues to show signs of strength, there is potential for vacancy demand to reverse in the near future.

Poland

Poland is one of the few countries currently experiencing sustained vacancy demand, with only a modest decline of 2.5% year-on-year. While the IT sector in Poland has also seen a cooling in vacancies, demand is expected to rise as strong economic growth is projected in 2024 and large multinational companies continue to invest in IT outsourcing hubs.

Mexico

Mexico has also seen strong labor demand, as total employees have grown 7% from 55.3 million in Q4 of 2019, to 59.1 million in Q1 of 2024.

Manufacturing: Automotive, aerospace, electronics and medical devices.
Construction: Ongoing infrastructure and urban development.
Services: Retail, hospitality and tourism.
Agriculture: Consistent demand for labor in farming and livestock.
IT: A growing sector in Mexico driven by digital transformation.

India

In the 2023-24 financial year, India’s central bank reported that jobs growth had doubled over the year to 6%, the highest growth rate in Indian history and 46.6 million jobs were added to the Indian economy in just 12 months.

Demand for highly skilled IT talent in India is among the fiercest globally. As a result, India faces a shortage of 600,000 workers in emerging skillsets such as AI and cybersecurity. Still, these bright spots have not been enough to quell the growing youth unemployment crisis. College graduates make up two-thirds of India’s unemployed, while 83% of Indian jobs are in the informal sector. Informal jobs skew heavily towards agricultural or blue-collar work but have become less desirable with many young Indians over the last decade. As a result, India will continue to struggle with a mismatch in its increasingly well-educated youth and the need for workers in its agricultural, construction and manufacturing sectors for the next several years. As a result, employers may find segments of untapped talent in India, particularly outside of the IT sector and major Indian cities. Employers are already looking to India to fill the global skills shortage with India being projected to see a 30% increase in international hiring within the next five years.

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